Bernie Sanders lost New York. I was up late enough to know when it was over, I woke up the next morning and thought- what if independents could vote? Turns out some other people had the same thought. A federal judge denied a request and delayed another (because of a typo) before the primary that could have opened the primary to New York’s 3.2 million independents.
Breaking: Federal judge denies TRO request in lawsuit filed on Monday challenging NY’s closed primary. pic.twitter.com/rTZzqHtQy3
— Chris Geidner (@chrisgeidner) 19 April 2016
Ipsos Mori conducted research between April 9-13 on 1,680 Americans. The data showed, nationally, that 45% of independents would vote for Bernie and 29% for Hillary (26% wouldn’t vote). The sample was small, but extrapolating to 3.6 million would mean 1.44 million more votes for Bernie and 928,000 more for Hillary. A difference of 512,000 which would have swung the primary Bernie’s way.
California looks set to continue the streak of voter problems. The largest minor party in the state is the American Independent Party, which is actually an ultra-conservative Trump supporting group that have hacked the alphabetical listings of political parties.
If you’re interested in the power of inertia to swing elections /u/turn-trout posted a comprehensive examination of New York’s primary on Reddit. Here’s the TL;DR though:
- Exit polls don’t accurately reflect public sentiment; this cuts both ways
Bernie needs an independent primary
The number of independents in the United States is contested. In October 2014, Gallup found that 43% of Americans identified as Democrats and 39% as Republicans after the 2014 elections. But another 2013 survey showed 42% of Americans identified as independents, this study was in line with 2010 polling showing 38% as independents. It could be that proximity to a big election pushes more people to say they’re one or the other and attitudes mellow away from the ballot box.
Closed primaries shut out huge numbers from the presidential election. Making independent’s voices heard by 2020 is a necessity. Would this make the Presidential campaign more like France where a run-off takes place? Liberté, égalité, fraternité.
Where’s the Welch?
Donald Trump, the demagogue for the 21st century, won solidly in New York. The remaining states will be hard fought. Alliances between the Establishment Kasich and the Arch-Conservative Cruz in Oregon, New Mexico, and Indiana aim to de-rail the Trump machine.
With millions more votes this plays into the hands of Trump. His alpha-underdog status is cemented, and his rabid fans are waiting to kick off. We’re getting to the point where a deus ex machina would be gratefully accepted. So who’s gonna be the next Welch?